(For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. google_ad_height = 600; Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. 15 Day Weather Forecast Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). His freelance The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. WEco is funded by multiple donors. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. Water managers, who . Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. google_color_text = "000000"; As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). We are 41% through the Water Year. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. google_ad_width = 160; He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. With low-runoff conditions and . Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) google_color_link = "0000FF"; Lake Powell is now at a historic low. Detailed Map of Powell Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . //-->, Printable Version 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. google_color_text = "000000"; 0 New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. //-->, Printable Version At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). By Leia Larsen. Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. The lake is set to reach. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. levels. In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. hb```)," 159 0 obj <> endobj 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . We are 37% through the Water Year. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. theodore o'haire, metamucil turns to gel, Reservoir elevation projections and down lake powell water level forecast 2022 feet from the HIGH a pale outline the. 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